@article { author = {Toyoda, Yasuhiro and Toyoda, Yasuhiro and Tabuchi, Takahiro and Nakayama, Tomio and Hojo, Shigeyuki and Yoshioka, Setsuko and Maeura, Yoshiichi}, title = {Past Trends and Future Estimation of Annual Breast Cancer Incidence in Osaka, Japan}, journal = {Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {2847-2852}, year = {2016}, publisher = {West Asia Organization for Cancer Prevention (WAOCP), APOCP's West Asia Chapter.}, issn = {1513-7368}, eissn = {2476-762X}, doi = {APJCP.2016.17.6.2847}, abstract = {Background: Although the breast cancer incidence rate in Japan is lower than in western countries, the age-specific rates have markedly increased in recent years, along with the problems of declining birth rate and an aging population. Materials and Methods: We examined past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence using data from the Osaka Cancer Registry from 1976 to 2010, and estimated future trends until 2025 based on the changes observed and population dynamics using a log linear regression model. Results: The age-specific breast cancer incidence rate has increased consistently from the 1970s, and the rates have caught up with those of Japanese-Americans in the US. Assuming the increasing tendency of age-specific breast cancer incidence to be constant, the average annual incidence of breast cancer will increase 1.7-fold from 2006-2010 to 2021-2025. Furthermore, the number of patients aged 80 years should increase 3.4-fold. Conclusions: The medical demand for breast cancer care in Japan may increase explosively in the future, particularly among the elderly. We need to prepare for such a future increase in demand for care, although careful monitoring is needed to confirm these results.  }, keywords = {Breast cancer incidence,future trends,age-specific incidence,Japanese,Japanese-Americans}, url = {https://journal.waocp.org/article_16323.html}, eprint = {https://journal.waocp.org/article_16323_565d4f4842063f7e01c4c6b12bd814e8.pdf} }