Time Trends of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Urban Guangzhou over a 12-Year Period (2000-2011): Declines in Both Incidence and Mortality


Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon disease in most countries but occurs with much greaterfrequency in southern China. This study aimed to examine the secular trends of NPC in urban Guangzhou overthe time period of 2000–2011 using data from the Guangzhou Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted annual incidencerates of NPC were calculated by the direct method using the WHO World Standard Population (1960) as thereference. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used as an estimate of the trend. A total of 7,532new cases of NPC and 3,449 related deaths were registered. In both genders, the peak incidence occurred inthe 50- to 59-year age group, and this age distribution pattern remained similar throughout. The AAPC inNPC incidence rates was -3.26% (95% CI: -5.4%--1.1) for males and -5.74% (95% CI: -8.9%--2.5) for females,resulting in a total decrease of 39.3% (from 22.14 to 13.44 per 100,000 population) for males and 48.6% (from10.1 to 5.18 per 100,000 population) for females over this 12-year period. The AAPCs in NPC mortality rateswere -4.62% (95%CI: -3.5%--5.7) for males and -6.75% (95% CI: -5.2%--8.3) for females, resulting in a totaldecrease of -46.1% (from 12.1 to 6.54 per 100,000 population) for males and 51.7% (from 4.14 to 2.00 per 100,000population) for females. The age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates of NPC declined during 2000–2011in urban Guangzhou but remained high. Future efforts to improve prevention, early detection and treatmentstrategies are needed.