Purpose: To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend froml991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention andmanagement. Materials and
Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were usedto describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to studythe geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling(GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends.
Results: The mortality rate ofliver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas,and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increasein the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such asJiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province.
Conclusions: The standardizedmortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend ispredicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in highmortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.