Characteristics and Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2013


Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and managementof lung cancer. Materials and
Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were usedto describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographicaldistribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) andjoinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future.
Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate oflung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas werehigher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographicalanalysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China hada higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces.
Conclusions:The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predictedto continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public toincrease prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortalityareas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).