Investigating the Incidence of Prostate Cancer in Iran 2005 -2008 using Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models


Background: Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer and the sixth leading cause ofcancer-related deaths among men in the entire world. Reported standardized incidence rates are 12.6, 61.7, 11.9and 27.9 in Iran, developed countries, developing countries and the entire world, respectively. The present studyinvestigated the relative risk of PC in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some factors bythe use of Bayesian models. Materials and
Methods: Our study population was all men with PC in Iran from2005 to 2008. Considered risk factors were smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity andhuman development index. We used empirical and full Bayesian models to study the relative risk in Iran atprovince level to estimate the risk of PC more accurately.
Results: In Iran from 2005 to 2008 the total numberof known PC cases was 10,361 with most cases found in Fars and Tehran and the least in Ilam. In all modelsjust human development index was found to be significantly related to PC risk
Conclusions: In the unadjustedmodel, Fars, Semnam, Isfahan and Tehran provinces have the highest and Sistan-and-Baluchestan has theleast risk of PC. In general, central provinces have high risk. After adjusting for covariates, Fars and Zanjanprovinces have the highest relative risk and Kerman, Northern Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, Ghazvinand Kermanshah have the lowest relative risk. According to the results, the incidence of PC in provinces withhigher human development index is higher.