Prediction of the Cancer Incidence in Nepal

Document Type: Research Articles


1 Bhaktapur cancer hospital

2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, China

3 B P Koirala Memorial Cancer Hospital, Bharatpur, Chitwan, Nepal

4 Roberta Steel, Quality Consultant. Cavendish Square Wellington, New Zealand


Background: The burden of cancer will increase both in males and females in Nepal. Due to the unavailability of a population based cancer registry it is difficult to precisely predict of future incidence rates. However, using hospital-based data to predict the cancer incidence in Nepal it was found that it will certainly increase both in males and females from 2013 to 2020. Material and Methods: For this research we used the cases from the first national cancer registry report (2003) to the cases of the most recent (2012) accumulated by all the hospital based cancer registries in Nepal. We used simple linear regression to analyze the data and thereby obtained a simple linear regression equation. Result: In 2020 the highest incidence rate will be for males 38.5 per 100,000 and for females, 41.4. The present study demonstrated that female cancer incidence will be higher than that in males in Nepal. Conclusion: This study provided evidence of future trends, which will feature an increasing rate of cancer in Nepal.


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