Thyroid Cancer in Kazakhstan: Component Analysis of Incidence Dynamics

Document Type: Research Articles

Authors

1 Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.

2 International High School of Medicine, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

3 Central Asian Cancer Institute, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.

4 Eurasian Institute for Cancer Research, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

5 National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Abstract

Background: The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) reports that 567,000 new cases of thyroid
cancer (TC) were registered in the world in 2018, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 6.7 per 100,000. The
Global Cancer Observation forecasts a 35% growth in the number of new cases worldwide by 2040. The number of
patients with TC in Kazakhstan is also increasing steadily. This investigation was the first epidemiological study of TC
trends by component analysis among the population of Kazakhstan. This paper presents the results of the component
analysis of TC incidence trends in Kazakhstan. Methods: The study covers primary data of TC cases (ICD 10 – C73)
registered throughout Kazakhstan from 2009 to 2018. TC incidence trends were evaluated using component analysis
according to the methodological recommendations. Results: 5,559 new TC cases were registered during the 10-year
study period. The average age of patients was 52.0±0.2 years, the average annual age-standardized rate in 2009-2018
was 3.3±0.20/0000, with a constant upward trend (Т=+6.6%). According to the component analysis results, the increase
in incidence was mainly due to the combined effect of the two factors: the increased disease risk (ΔR=+61.7%), and
the population growth (ΔP=+15.4%). Conclusion: The noted increase in incidence was mainly caused by the changes
in risk factors, such as the worsening environmental aspects and the increase in detection of clinically non-manifesting
cases. The results of the study shall be taken into account when planning anticancer activities for TC.

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