Survival Analysis of Cervical Cancer Patients: A Case Study of Bhutan

Document Type : Research Articles


1 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Rama 6 Rd, Bangkok, Thailand.

2 Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, Perdo, Thailand.


Objective: The purpose of the study is to identify the risk factors such as age, the stage of patients based on the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics system (FIGO stage) and treatment type, and their effect on the survival of cervical cancer patients receiving treatments at Jigme Dorji Wangchuck National Referral Hospital (JDWNRH) in Bhutan between January 2014 and December 2019. Methods: In this retrospective study, all 357 women diagnosed with cervical cancer were included. Kaplan-Meier model was applied to estimate survival, and the log-rank test was performed to compare survival distributions between subgroups stratified by each of the risk factors. Baseline demographics, cervical cancer stages, and treatment options were analyzed as factors and predictors of survival by Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The overall estimated 1- to 5-year survival rates are 82.1% (95% CI: 77.8-86.7), 75.6% (70.4-81.1), 65.2% (58.2-73.0), 62.3% (54.7-70.9) and 55.4% (44.9-68.3). The results reveal that age group, FIGO stage, treatment, and frequency of hospital visits are significant factors affecting the survival of cervical cancer patients in Bhutan. Patients aged >45 years increases the risk of dying (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2-3.9) compared to the young age group (≤45 years). Treatment types other than surgery only are significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with cervical cancers. The more frequency of hospital visits also reduces the risk of dying (HR: 0.1, 95% CI: 0-0.3). FIGO stage IV is the most significant risk factor for mortality with a hazard ratio of 6 (95% CI: 2.1-17.6). Conclusion: The five-year survival rate of cervical cancer patients in this study was low. Late diagnosis of cervical cancer appears to be mainly associated with a higher risk of dying. The results provide valuable information for further research and policymaking in the prevention and management of cervical cancer. 


Main Subjects