Projection of load of cancer mortality helps in quantifying the burden of cancer and is essential for planningcancer control activities. As per our knowledge, there have not been many attempts to project the cancer mortalityburden at the country level in India mainly due to lack of data on cancer mortality at the national and state level.This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer mortality problem for the various calendar years from2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. Age, sex and site-wise specific cancer mortality data along with populationscovered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published byIndian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer mortality rateswere obtained by taking weighted average of these six registries with respective registry populations as weights.The pooled mortality rates were assumed to represent the country’s mortality rates. Populations of the countryaccording to age and sex exposed to the risk of cancer mortality in different calendar years were obtained fromthe report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2011to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled mortality rates to estimate the projected numberof cancer mortality cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and2026. The projections were carried out for the various cancer-leading sites as well as for ‘all sites’ of cancer. Theresults revealed that an estimated 0.44 million died due to cancer during the year 2011, while 0.51 million and0.60 million persons are likely to die from cancer in 2016 and 2021. In the year 2011 male mortality was estimatedto be 0.23 million and female mortality to be 0.20 million. The estimated cancer mortality would increase to 0.70million by the year 2026 as a result of change in size and composition of population. In males increase will be to0.38 millions and in females to 0.32 millions. Among women, cancer of the breast, cervical and ovary accountfor 34 percent of all cancer deaths. The leading sites of cancer mortality in males are lung, oesophagus, prostrateand stomach. The above results show a need for commitment for tackling cancer by reducing risk factors andstrengthening the existing screening and treatment facilities.
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