Time Trends of Ovarian Cancer Incidence in China


The aim of this study was to examine the trend of ovary cancer incidence from 1999 to 2010 in China andpredict the burden up to 2020. Crude incidence, age specific incidence and age-adjusted incidence rates werecalculated. Joinpoint regression was performed to obtain estimated annual percentages and Bayesian age-periodcohortmodeling was used to predict the incidence rate until the year 2020. In China, the crude rate of ovarycancer was 7.91/100,000 and the age-adjusted rate was 5.35/100,000 overall during period 1999-2010. The ratesin urban regions were higher than in rural regions. A significant rising trend during 1999-2006 was followedby a drop during 2006-2010 in age-adjusted rates for urban females. In contrast, constant rise was observed inrural women. The decrease in ovary cancer of urban areas tended to be restricted to women aged 50 years andyounger. In contrast, increases of ovary cancer in rural areas appeared in virtually all age groups. Although theage-adjusted incidence rate for ovary cancer was predicted to be reduced after year 2011, the crude rate waslikely to be relative stable up to 2020. The burden of ovary cancer in China will continue to be relative stabledue to the aging population.