Mortality Characteristics and Prediction of Female Breast Cancer in China from 1991 to 2011

Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trendin the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and
Methods:Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution,such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trendsurfaceanalysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, timeseries modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict futuretrends.
Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, ourdata predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higherthan those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed,with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysisindicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East.
Conclusions: Thestandardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continuefor the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention andmanagement of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focuson the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management,and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.