Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future


Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortalitydistribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and
Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiologicalcharacteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences,and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curveestimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortalitytrends.
Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steadyincrease in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urbanareas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group.In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwestto west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country.
Conclusions: The incidence rate and themortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus,implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especiallyfor rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).