Breast Cancer in Surat Thani, a Province in Southern Thailand: Analysis of 2004-2012 Incidence and Future Trends


Background: With the recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, featuring decreasing incidences ofinfectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, cancer is becoming a serious problem forthe country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females, not only in the southern regions, butthroughout Thailand. Surat Thani is a province in the upper part of Southern Thailand. A study was neededto identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer. Materials and
Methods: Here we usedcancer incidence data from the Surat Thani Cancer Registry to characterize the incidences of breast cancer.Joinpoint analysis was used to investigate the incidences in the province from 2004 to 2012 and to project futuretrends from 2013 to 2030.
Results: Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper partsof Southern Thailand increased from 35.1 to 59.2 cases per 100,000 female population, which is equivalent toan annual percentage change of 4.5-4.8%. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence.Joinpoint projection suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence forwomen aged 50 and above, at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50.
Conclusions: The current earlydetection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities andhuman resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.