Breast Cancer in Lopburi, a Province in Central Thailand: Analysis of 2001–2010 Incidence and Future Trends


Background: Thailand has come to an epidemiologic transition with decreasing infectious diseases and  increasing burden of chronic conditions, including cancer. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. This study aimed to identify the current burden and the future trends of breast cancer of Lopburi, a province in the Central Thailand. Materials and
Methods: We used cancer incidence data from the Lopburi Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the incidence of breast cancer in Central Thailand. With joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses, the incidence of breast cancer in the province from 2001 to 2010 and project future trends from 2011 to 2030 was investigated.
Results: Age adjusted incidence rates of breast cancer in Lopburi increased from 23.4 to 34.3 cases per 100,000 female population during the period, equivalent to an annual percentage change of 4.3% per year. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the increase in incidence. Joinpoint projection suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women ages 50 years and above increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50.
Conclusions: The current situation where early detection measures are being promoted could increase detection rates of the disease. Preparation of sufficient budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential for future medical care.