Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010


Ear Nose and Throat Department, Medical School, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran


Background: There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Materials and Methods: Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. Results: The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Conclusions: Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.