Comparison of Life-Time Death Probability due to Malignant Tumors in Different Regions of China Based on Chinese Surveillance Sites

Document Type : Research Articles


1 Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China.

2 Educational Base, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.


Objective: To estimate and comparably analyze the life-time death probability (LDP) caused by malignant tumors
in different regions in 2004 and 2014. Methods: LDP was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an
abridged life table. Data on age-specific mortality was obtained from the National Cause-of- Death Surveillance Dataset
in 2014 using surveillance sites in China and data on age-specific mortality was collected from the third retrospective
investigation of death cause in China in 2004. Results: LDP caused by malignant tumors, lung cancer, gastric cancer,
liver cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal, and anal cancer were 19.2%, 5.6%, 2.8%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, respectively. In
addition, we calculated LDP caused by malignant tumors in three different regions of China. LDP caused by malignant
tumors were 21.2%, 6.1%, 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.0%, and 1.5% in the eastern region, were 18.3%, 5.5%, 2.7%, 3.0%, 1.5%,
and 1.1% in the central region, and were 16.7%, 4.6%, 2.3%, 2.8%, 1.6%, and 1.2% in the western region, respectively.
Additionally, LDP caused by malignant tumors in 2004 and 2015 were compared. We found that LDPs caused by
malignant tumors, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer have increased in the past decade, while LDPs caused by gastric
cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal cancer have experienced a decreasing trend. Conclusions: Malignant tumors
were still the main cause of death in one’s life time, giving rise to LDP. LDP caused by malignant tumours has two
divisions. First, traditional upper digestive system cancers related to long-term chronic infection, such as esophageal
cancer, gastric cancer, and liver cancer, which has shown a significant downward trend. Second, lung and colorectal
cancers related to the environmental factors and lifestyle, which are on the rise.


Main Subjects